The tin market is stuck between macro pressure and tight supply-demand balance [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes June 3, 2025

The tin market is currently caught in a dual game of macro suppression and fundamental tight balance. Internationally, US Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% QoQ, core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, consumer confidence hit record lows, and manufacturing PMI pulled back to 48.7, intensifying economic downward pressure. The US Fed kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive time but highlighted rising inflation and unemployment risks, with the US dollar index fluctuating at highs, continuing to suppress nonferrous metals sector valuations. Domestically, May refined tin production is expected to decline MoM, as Yunnan and Jiangxi smelters' operating rates stood at just 56.85%, with low TCs squeezing profits and sustaining tight supply. Although the first batch of tin concentrates from DRC's Bisie tin mine shipped on May 9, smelting won't commence until June, making short-term inventory relief unlikely. Slow production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State and unexpanded Indonesian exports will maintain Q2 supply deficits. Demand-side weakness persists. High-priced tin ingots (SHFE spot prices holding at 240,000-265,000 yuan/mt) significantly dampen restocking willingness among electronics/home appliance manufacturers, with industry chain transmission blockages further reducing scrap circulation. Structural bright spots concentrate in new energy sectors—PV welding strips and NEVs (per-unit tin consumption doubles traditional vehicles) provide demand support, though growth has slowed from 2023 levels, while traditional semiconductor solder demand remains weak due to peak industry cycles. Overall, the market shows a tight balance pattern with "supply reductions outpacing demand recovery."